Every loop you had created, every move you had made was being studied. Studied by someone unknown to you and me.
All you had done was think rationally from your point of view. Think from their perspective. What if you had made the other choice? It is not always about the probability of success but also the confidence level you have in your move. A 90% confidence level with 95% probability of success is of no use against 100% confidence level and 90% probability of success.
Spiti was just a route I had planned. Stories I had heard about water crossings, bikes skidding and falling of the cliffs, cars getting stuck in water streams and on muddy roads, landslides on every mountain and hill!!
The risk was too much but the confidence was much more. Many of them asked if I had done a solo bike trip earlier. I lied that I had. Actually I never rode a bike for more than 100 kms on any day and on plain roads. But this lie boosted confidence in them and so did it in me.